The COP29 summit has concluded in Baku, Azerbijan. It was scheduled to run from the 11th November to the 22nd November 2024, but overran (as usual) and finished on the 24th November.
Last year I wrote that hopes were low going into COP28, and the same was true this year for COP29. This despite the fact that 2024 marks 36 years since Dr James Hansen’s Senate testimony on climate change. To think we’ve had 36 years of failed political leadership on the climate crisis is profoundly depressing.
Ahead of the COP29 summit, the WMO produced a State of the Climate Report, which made for grim reading. Some highlights included:
- 2024 is currently on track to be the warmest year ever recorded
- The last 10 years have been the warmest decade on record
- Sea ice around Antarctica is the second lowest on record
- Devastating extreme weather events have hit the world again this year
- The global average temperature for January to September 2024 was 1.54C above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile the Copernicus Climate Change Service, states that, “October 2024 was 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” This supports the argument I made earlier this year that we’re currently living through the breach of the 1.5C climate target. Many scientists now agree that we’ve permanently blown our chances of keeping temperatures below 1.5C.
- In 2023, Greenhouse gases (GHGs) hit record levels. In 2024, they rose even higher. CO2 is currently at 420ppm, which is a 51% increase from the pre-industrial level of 278ppm in 1750. It’s believed that a safer level of CO2 is about 350ppm.
- The WMO estimates that around 3.1 million terawatt-hours (TWh) of heat have been absorbed by oceans every year, from 2005 to 2023. As oceans store 90% of the Earth system’s energy, it’s “expected that ocean warming will continue – a change that is irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales.”
Earlier this year, the Guardian interviewed IPCC climate scientists, and the results were quite sobering:
- 77% of climate scientists expect temperatures to rise by at least 2.5C this century, compared to pre-industrial levels
- 42% of scientists believe temperatures will rise by 3C or more
- Nearly 75% of respondents said that a lack of political will was holding back climate action
- 60% stated that vested interests were preventing climate action
We are in perilous territory. Yet our leaders, who attended their 29th annual climate summit still dither and delay and give in to vested interests, all to our collective detriment. The UN made an attempt to drive forward action with their Pact for the Future in September 2024, but that fell massively short of where it needs to be. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has warned that, humanity is committing “collective suicide”, that fossil fuel corporations have “humanity by the throat”, and that, “the era of global boiling has arrived.”
This is supported by the fact that we’re set to shoot past the Paris goal of ideally limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and no more than 2C. Instead, Climate Action Tracker released a report saying that the median level of warming would be around 2.7C based on current policies, and in a best case scenario this could be brought down to 1.8C. Both of these forecasts still lead us into unchartered territory, and mean that 1.5C is no longer feasible. This also doesn’t take into account the re-election of convicted felon and climate change denier, Donald Trump.
Before diving into the rest of the review, I produced a handy explainer about what the COP summits are and what they’ve achieved over the years. I’d also like to give a special shoutout and thank you to the Guardian’s environment team who have once again covered COP29 in-depth, and their reporting has informed much of the following post. I appreciate all their hard work and their unswerving commitment to inform the world about the greatest challenge of our time.
Before COP29
COP 29 had been dubbed by some as the “climate finance COP”. In 2009, a target was set to provide climate finance of $100bn every year, up until now when the target was to be amended. Developing countries wanted this target to rise to $1tn a year by 2035. This comes under the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance. Thus, climate finance was the centrepiece of COP29.
Last year, countries finally agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at COP28. It was hoped that this would be fleshed out at COP29, but this wasn’t to be the case. It’s likely this wasn’t helped by the fact that Azerbaijan, a major fossil fuel producer, was hosting the summit.
Prior to the commencement of talks, Elnur Soltanov, the CEO of COP29 was recorded having a conversation with a made up oil and gas group, saying that he would broker oil and gas deals for them during the climate summit. Let’s just remember that the COP climate summits are there to facilitate a move away from fossil fuels. Given that this happened before COP29, it seemed to set the stage for what was to come. It was also similar to the situation last year, when it was revealed that the UAE (who hosted COP28), planned to use the summit to push new oil deals.
It was also shown that the host, Azerbaijan, has massive fossil fuel expansion projects planned. It’s state-owned company Socar, alongside partners, are aiming to increase gas production from 37bn cubic metres (bcm) annually, to 49bcm annually, by 2033.
COP29 begins
On the 12 November, UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, delivered a powerful speech. The full speech can be read here (and a short video can be watched here), and it’s worth quoting extracts below as he has consistently been one of the most outspoken and fearless leaders on the climate crisis:
- “The sound you hear is the ticking clock. We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. And time is not on our side.”
- “Exhibit A: 2024. With the hottest day on record …the hottest months on record …this is almost certain to be the hottest year on record. And a masterclass in climate destruction.”
- “The rich cause the problem, the poor pay the highest price. Oxfam finds the richest billionaires emit more carbon in an hour and a half than the average person does in a lifetime.”
- “Humanity is behind you: a poll by the University of Oxford and the United Nations Development Programme finds that – globally – eighty percent of people around the world want more climate action.”
- “Scientists, activists, and young people are demanding change – they must be heard, not silenced.”
- “Climate action is not optional, it’s an imperative.”
It was brought to light that Global Witness purchased the domain COP29.com and used it for their #PaybackTime campaign, where they listed pictures of the bosses of five oil companies. This was accompanied by the tagline, “Fossil fuel companies are destroying the planet for profit. They broke it, they should pay for it.” Global Witness wrote that, around 90% of carbon emissions come from oil, gas and coal. They note that oil companies have spent billions to hamper climate action, while in 2022, “the oil and gas industry made $4 trillion in pre-tax profits.”
A Guardian editorial on the 12th November led with the title, “1.5C has been passed – so speed up the green transition,” signifying the dire situation we find ourselves in after 29 annual attempts to tackle the climate emergency.
On the 13th November, the Global Carbon Budget project revealed that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a new high in 2024, and increased by 0.8% compared to 2023 levels. Over 37bn tonnes of CO2 are predicted to be emitted this year, which the Guardian equates to around 4m tonnes per minute. That same day, Argentina ordered their negotiators to withdraw from the summit, which is concerning ahead of Trump coming into Power and rumours swirling of countries withdrawing from climate agreements.
Around halfway through the summit, a group of experts said they didn’t believe COP summits are fit for purpose. I wonder if the fact that this is COP29, had anything to do with it… One might imagine that three decades of climate inaction has a way of making people critical of these summits. It doesn’t say much about the ingenuity of our species, which is something that George Monbiot touched upon in his excellent article noting that we may become the first species to knowingly drive itself to extinction.
On Friday 15th November, it was revealed that at least 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists were in attendance at COP29, representing 1.5% of the total attendees (around 70,000). This figure apparently represents the second highest number of fossil fuel lobbyists on record for a COP climate summit. It is beyond infuriating that those wishing to destroy our planet are welcomed with open arms to a summit, which has the sole purpose of saving it. In addition, 204 agricultural lobbyists, and nearly 500 carbon capture and storage (CCS) lobbyists were in attendance at COP29. This despite the fact that CCS is viewed as highly controversial and isn’t seen as a viable climate solution by many. Unfortunately, the bad news got worse, as the Guardian reported that around 132 fossil fuel bosses and lobbyists were given the ‘red-carpet’ treatment at COP29. You couldn’t make this up.
On Monday 18th November, Carbon Brief produced an analysis which looked at how many extreme weather events could be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Their analysis found that the climate crisis has exacerbated 550 extreme weather events encompassing heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods. The full study can be viewed here.
On Friday 22nd November, the final scheduled day of COP29, a draft agreement was released which garnered a great deal of resentment. It all centred around the key goal of finance. The draft agreement put forward a total of $1.3tn in annual finance for developing countries by 2035. However, it stated that only $250bn of this finance would come from developed countries, as the ‘core’ finance, with the rest coming from ‘outer layers’ of finance, including from the private sector, carbon trading, and taxes on fossil fuels. Whereas developing countries were hoping that the core amount from developed countries would be significantly larger, and they also hoped it would come in the form of grants, and low interest loans. Thus, the negotiating process hit a road block on the final day of the scheduled conference meaning that as per usual, the talks overran.
Thus, the talks lapsed into Saturday 23rd November, when developed countries offered to increase the ‘core’ funding amount from the previous day’s figure of $250bn to $300bn. The Guardian also revealed that Saudi Arabia was editing official COP29 agreement texts, whilst other countries weren’t given the same opportunity. Thus, there were fears that oil-rich Saudi Arabia was obfuscating these climate talks, to save their fossil fuel industries. This concern was also on display when the UAE (the host of last year’s COP28 summit), made a statement saying that countries must honour the pledges made at COP28, as Saudi Arabia was accused of trying to undo the outcome of last year’s summit which pledged to transition away from fossil fuels.
There was a general fear that talks would collapse on Saturday without any agreement. This was exacerbated by the fact that the overrunning talks meant that some delegations and attendees would need to catch their flights home prior to an agreement being reached. The issue here arises from the UNFCCC rules regarding ‘QUORUM’. Simon Evans explained this is where two-thirds of attendees must be present for agreements and decisions to be reached. This equates to “130/195 parties to the Paris Agreement, or 132/198 for UNFCCC.”
Outcomes of COP29
An agreement was finally reached on Sunday 24th November, albeit under circumstances where very few countries were happy with the result. It was agreed that developing countries would receive $1.3tn in annual finance by 2035. However, only $300bn of this will come from developed countries, in the form of grants and low-interest loans. This leaves a $1tn gap, which will have to be filled in by alternative sources of finance which are yet to be finalised, but may include private investment, taxes on flying, and taxes on fossil fuels. This was a pitiful outcome, given that finance was the main goal at this two week conference… The 29th annual climate conference of its kind.
Other outcomes included:
- A deal was agreed for carbon trading and carbon markets (relating to Article 6 in the Paris Agreement), although full details need to be fleshed out in 2025. Carbon trading will effectively allow high-emitting nations to purchase carbon credits in the form of tree planting, rainforest protection, and renewable energy schemes in developing countries. It’s worth pointing out that carbon trading has had major issues in the past, and a recent paper in Nature Communications analysed around 20% of all credits issued to date, and found that only 16% of the carbon credits issued so far actually “constitute real emission reductions.” Thus, unless something drastically changes, this could remain a highly flawed and ineffective system.
- The UK International Forest Unit pledged £3m for REDD+ (Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries), to support their work over four years.
- Adoption of the Baku Workplan, which will give indigenous people a stronger voice for climate action.
- Gender equality received a boost through a 10 year extension of the Lima Work Programme on Gender and Climate Change.
Carbon Brief has produced a fantastic analysis of COP29 outcomes here.
COP29 agreement
The full COP29 decision documents can be found here. Some noteworthy points include:
- Global Stocktake Outcomes – “10. Reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.” Many scientists now believe that the 1.5C target is dead. Why are the COP summits pretending that this target is still achievable, when we’re living through the breach of 1.5C as we speak?
- Global Stocktake Outcomes – “15. Reaffirms that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.” This is concerning given that transitional fuels are another name for fossil fuels like gas. The world needs to be leaving fossil fuels in the past where they belong.
- Finance – “7. Calls on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.” A maximum of $300bn of this will come from developed countries, leaving a $1tn hole in this pledge that could come from a range of sources. But, there are no firm commitments of how much will come from any source.
- Finance – “8. Reaffirms, in this context, Article 9 of the Paris Agreement and decides to set a goal, in extension of the goal referred to in paragraph 53 of decision 1/CP.21, with developed country Parties taking the lead, of at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035 for developing country Parties for climate action.” This figure fell far short of what was hoped for, and with a Trump presidency about to begin, there is a risk that the US may not honour their commitments, leaving the rest of the world to shoulder their responsibility.
Conclusion
COP29 marks the 29th year that the world has failed to tackle the climate crisis. That’s almost three decades.
This year felt like a farce from beginning to end. Not only was the summit held in a fossil fuel producing nation, but the president of this year’s COP was even recorded offering to negotiate new oil and gas deals.
We had 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists, 204 agricultural lobbyists, and 500 CCS lobbyists in attendance – all looking to hamper meaningful climate action. All while 132 fossil fuel bosses were given the red carpet treatment… Treating the people wrecking our climate and planet in this manner makes a complete and utter mockery of the entire COP process and shows humanity isn’t serious about tackling the climate emergency, thus endangering the future of every single child and grandchild on the planet. Not that many people seem to care about that, because if they did – we wouldn’t have let politicians kick the can down the road for TWENTY-NINE–YEARS and get away with it.
The primary outcome of $300bn in funding by 2035 fell far short of what was hoped for, and details are scant for how the other $1tn in annual finance will be raised. This was the final COP before Trump returns to power – when he does, there is a likelihood he’ll pull out of the Paris Agreement (again), and potentially even the entire UNFCCC climate framework. By not going hell-for-leather at COP29, it’s entirely possible that politicians have squandered the last realistic opportunity for climate action.
Decades of climate inaction was eventually bound to catch up with us at some point, and that point may be now.
Countries didn’t even reaffirm the commitment from COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels, and Damian Carrington questioned whether this may be a form of backsliding on last year’s pledge. It was a disastrous and disorganised summit, which makes me feel quite embarrassed for our species.
I’m reminded of a paragraph in climate scientist Peter Kalmus’s book, Being the Change. Kalmus says that there are potentially over a trillion species on our planet. Out of those trillion species, only one is knowingly and actively trying to destroy our biosphere – us. Ironically we’ve called ourselves homo sapiens, which means “wise man”. So, our “wise man” species not only destroys our biosphere, but also ensures we take part in 29 (!!!) annual summits where we fail to address the issue, instead inviting those most responsible for causing the damage, so that they can stymy any meaningful future action. Wise man indeed…
Until the next COP… and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that, until such time as physics decides that the planet can no longer sustain the wise man trashing it.
My new cli-fi children’s picture book, Nanook and the Melting Arctic is available from Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US. My eco-fiction children’s picture book, Hedgey-A and the Honey Bees about how pesticides affect bees, is available on Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US.