On the 22nd September 2024 at the Summit of the Future 2024, the UN (United Nations) adopted the Pact for the Future.
The summit was requested by UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, who has been extremely vocal about the climate crisis and has relentlessly pushed for meaningful climate action. Guterres said he called for the summit, “Because our world is heading off the rails – and we need tough decisions to get back on track.” He also said that, “We are here to bring multilateralism back from the brink.” Multilateralism, being where numerous countries come together to achieve a goal or implement solutions to problems.
I was particularly interested in what the pact would say about the climate crisis and AI – two of the primary issues facing humanity. So far, the UN has failed to tackle either issue, and questions abound regarding the UN’s fitness for purpose. This is something Guterres understands, saying that, “We cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”
Therefore, this blog will primarily focus on these two topics.
Opening remarks by António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
At the start of the summit, António Guterres delivered an excellent speech, which can be read here. He acknowledged the scale of the challenges we face, and also the failings of the UN. He called for urgent action to tackle the enormous problems we’re up against.
Some key points in his speech included:
- “21st century challenges require 21st century solutions.”
- “We have no effective global response to emerging, complex and even existential threats.”
- “New technologies, including AI, are being developed in a moral and legal vacuum, without governance or guardrails.”
- “The Pact for the Future is about turbocharging the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, accelerating a just transition away from fossil fuels, and securing a peaceful and livable future for everyone on our planet.”
- “The Global Digital Compact is based on the principle that technology should benefit everyone. It includes the first truly universal agreement on the international governance of Artificial Intelligence. It commits governments to establishing an independent international Scientific Panel on AI and initiating a global dialogue on its governance within the United Nations.”
- “I have learned that people never agree on the past. To rebuild trust, we must start with the present and look to the future.”
- “People everywhere are hoping for a future of peace, dignity, and prosperity. They are crying out for global action to solve the climate crisis, tackle inequality, and address new and emerging risks that threaten everyone.”
Pact for the Future
The Pact for the Future is a 66 page document which includes 56 actions, as well as two annexes containing the Global Digital Compact, and a Declaration on Future Generations. It was adopted by the UN on the 22nd September 2024.
There were claims that the pact had been watered down, and that it lacked specificity. Having read the initial unrevised ‘zero draft’ document, I also believe this to be the case. Below are two examples of commitments in the zero draft, which never made it into the final pact:
- “We commit to setting a deadline for eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.”
- “Building on progress made in multilateral negotiations, we commit to concluding without delay a legally binding instrument to prohibit lethal autonomous weapons systems that function without human control or oversight, and which cannot be used in compliance with international humanitarian law, and to regulate all other types of autonomous weapons systems.”
There was also an attempt to derail the pact, which failed.
The UN hailed the pact as “The most progressive and concrete commitment to Security Council reform since the 1960s,” and for being, “The first multilateral recommitment to nuclear disarmament in more than a decade, with a clear commitment to the goal of totally eliminating nuclear weapons.”
However, the pact still left much to be desired, which feels like a massive missed opportunity given it recognised that, “We are at a time of profound global transformation. We are confronted by rising catastrophic and existential risks, many caused by the choices we make… If we do not change course, we risk tipping into a future of persistent crisis and breakdown.”
The climate crisis
The pact recognises the climate crisis as one of the biggest threats to humanity, and commits to the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, as well as obligations under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Many of the pledges resemble those from the COP28 summit. Some of the actions relating to climate breakdown include:
- “Action 9. We will strengthen our actions to address climate change.” The pact states that the member states are worried about the slow progress on climate action, and that this must ramp up “in this critical decade.” As part of this:
- The pact reaffirms commitment to the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global temperatures to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally below 1.5C.
- Parties are called on to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. In addition, they are called on to:
- Phase-down coal
- Accelerate the switch to net zero energy systems
- Utilise zero carbon and low carbon fuels by 2050
- Transition away from fossil fuels
- Hit net zero by 2050
- Accelerate technologies including renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage
- Reduce methane emissions by 2030
- Deploy low emission vehicles and reduce road transport emissions
- Phase-out fossil fuel subsidies “as soon as possible.”
- ‘Transitional fuels’ can be part of the shift.
- Reverse “deforestation and forest degradation by 2030”, and conserve, protect, and restore natural and marine ecosystems which can act as carbon sinks.
- The pact reaffirms a commitment to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from the Paris Agreement, encouraging countries to keep their NDCs in line with the 1.5C target.
- “Action 35. We will promote, protect and respect the human rights of all young people and foster social inclusion and integration.” The pact understands that the climate crisis poses a massive risk to the lives of young people, and that they deserve “a clean, healthy and sustainable environment.”
- “Action 52. We will accelerate the reform of the international financial architecture so that it can meet the urgent challenge of climate change.” This involves:
- Increasing the access and availability of climate finance from multilateral development banks and finance institutions for developing countries, so that they can address the climate crisis.
- Multilateral development banks are also called on to mobilise funding for climate adaptation and the installation of renewables and low emission/zero emission energy efficiency technology.
- Large corporations, and the private sector in general, is encouraged to play a role in helping developing countries with climate action, and also in achieving “the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals.”
Environmental degradation
The tenth action in the pact focuses specifically on tackling the environmental crisis. It states that, “We will accelerate our efforts to restore, protect, conserve and sustainably use the environment.” It states that we need to shift our approach to attain a world where we live “in harmony with nature.” As part of this, the pact talks about addressing biodiversity loss, water scarcity, pollution, sea level rise, climate change, land degradation, floods, drought, desertification, deforestation, and sand storms. This is supported by:
- A decision to sustainably use resources and reverse environmental degradation.
- A decision to improve the health, resilience, productivity, and sustainable use of oceans, as well as the sustainable use of freshwater resources, forests, mountains, glaciers, and drylands. This is part of an overall ambition to “protect, conserve and restore biodiversity, ecosystems and wildlife.”
- A decision to promote consumption which is sustainable, such as through the circular economy and zero-waste initiatives.
- A decision to address all types of pollution, effectively manage chemicals, and put in place an internationally binding plastic pollution agreement.
- A decision to put in place the framework for halting and reversing biodiversity loss before 2030, and implementing every multilateral environmental agreement.
- A decision to strengthen international cooperation.
The AI crisis
The pact states that AI can be an enabler of sustainable development. It says that technologies like this, “Offer huge potential for progress for the benefit of people and planet today and in the future. We are determined to realize this potential and manage the risks through enhanced international cooperation, engagement with relevant stakeholders, and by promoting an inclusive, responsible and sustainable digital future.”
Action 27 looks primarily at these technologies and states that, “We will seize the opportunities associated with new and emerging technologies and address the potential risks posed by their misuse.” It acknowledges that “rapid technological change presents opportunities and risks to our collective efforts to maintain international peace and security.” As part of this, there are decisions to:
- Push forward with international negotiations to prevent an arms race in space.
- Advance discussions on LAWS (lethal autonomous weapons systems) as a matter of urgency.
- Ensure all countries can reap the benefits of these technologies.
- Assess the risks of military uses of AI.
- Ask the UN Secretary-General to provides updates on emerging technologies and their impacts.
In addition, a ‘Global Digital Compact’ was passed and included below the pact. It states that, “We recognize that the pace and power of emerging technologies are creating new possibilities but also new risks for humanity, some of which are not yet fully known. We recognize the need to identify and mitigate risks and to ensure human oversight of technology in ways that advance sustainable development and the full enjoyment of human rights.” It aims to make “safe and secure” open-source software, data, and AI models, available by 2030.
The Global Digital Compact includes five objectives. Of particular note are the following two:
- “Objective 3. Foster an inclusive, open, safe and secure digital space that respects, protects and promotes human rights.” It states that:
- Tech companies should “respect international human rights and principles, including through the application of human rights due diligence and impact assessments throughout the technology life cycle.”
- Tech companies, developers and social media platforms should be accountable and put in place measures that prevent abuses, in addition to providing appropriate remedies.
- By 2030, all users should have an online space that is both safe and secure, which doesn’t harm their mental health or wellbeing.
- Information should be accurate and reliable, but there is a recognition that new technologies can manipulate information in a harmful manner.
- There is an aim to address misinformation, disinformation, and hate speech.
- Tech companies and developers are urgently called upon to develop solutions that counter harms such as hate speech and discrimination, produced by AI. Solutions include safeguards built into AI models, identifying AI-generated content, and “authenticity certification”, including things like watermarks and labelling.
- “Objective 5. Enhance international governance of artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity.”
- Commit to harnessing AI benefits and mitigating risks.
- There is an opportunity to advance international AI governance through this pact. It seeks to promote “transparency, accountability and robust human oversight” of AI in line with international laws.
- Commitment to establish a “multidisciplinary Independent International Scientific Panel on AI with balanced geographic representation to promote scientific understanding through evidence-based impact, risk and opportunity assessments, drawing on existing national, regional and international initiatives and research networks.”
- Begin a global dialogue regarding AI governance through the UN, set to take place “in the margins” of existing UN meetings.
- The President of the UN General Assembly is requested to appoint someone from a developed country, and another from a developing country, to be co-facilitators who will work to set out the “terms of reference” for “the Independent International Scientific Panel on AI and the Global Dialogue on AI.”
- Organisations that develop standards for AI are called on to ensure that safety, human rights, sustainability, and reliability, are upheld.
Other interesting pledges
In addition to the climate and AI crises, the pact contained a few other interesting pledges. These included:
- “Explore options for international cooperation on the taxation of high-net-worth individuals” (Action 4).
- “Action 14. We will protect all civilians in armed conflict.” This includes restricting explosive weapons from being used in populated areas where civilians may be at risk, including hospitals, schools, and places of worship.
- “Action 25. We will advance the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.” This action acknowledges the right to research and produce nuclear energy, but makes it clear that it aims to:
- Achieve “the goal of the total elimination of nuclear weapons,” so that the world is free of these weapons.
- Improve existing non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament architecture, and work “to prevent nuclear war.”
- “Action 56. We will strengthen international cooperation for the exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes and for the benefit of all humanity.”
In the second Annex below the pact, was a ‘Declaration on Future Generations’. This declaration was aimed at young people of the future, and reaffirmed commitments to environmental protection, tackling climate change, and living “in harmony with nature.” Interestingly, it also mentioned the importance of “climate justice.”
It also took note of Guterres’ proposal for a “Special Envoy for Future Generations”, which would support with the implementation of the declaration.
Analysis
Climate analysis
A lot of the pledges in the pact were similar to those from the COP28 conference, which I covered here. This isn’t a positive sign as it indicates little improvement in the nine months since the COP summit.
The pact reaffirms a commitment to the Paris Agreement of limiting temps to no more than 2C, and ideally keeping them below 1.5C. But a number of climate scientists say that the 1.5C goal is dead in the water, and that 2C may even be beyond reach. Earlier this year, it was confirmed that we breached the 1.5C temperature rise for a full 12 month period (between July 2023 and June 2024, temperatures were 1.64C above pre-industrial temperatures). Many scientists say this doesn’t constitute a full breach of the 1.5C target, as we ‘only’ exceeded this threshold for 12 months. Whereas climate refers to something over a much longer period.
I covered this in some detail in a previous blog. I referenced a Guardian article where Dr James Hansen, explained that even though temperatures have been boosted by an El Niño event, that once it abates, “the span of subsequent years will, taken together, still average at the 1.5C limit.” Thus, the world’s leading climate scientist believes that the next few years will average out at 1.5C, and this should meet the requirement stipulated by some scientists. To put it simply, whichever way you want to split it, we are living through the breach of 1.5C.
What will happen next? Hansen warns in the Guardian article that, “We will pass through the 2C (3.6F) world in the 2030s unless we take purposeful actions to affect the planet’s energy balance.”
Thus, seeing the UN still talking about the 1.5C target feels like a big betrayal and a slap in the face. It seems like they’re refusing to face up to the magnitude of the catastrophe heading our way – a catastrophe that they’ve had 28 annual COP climate summits to try and prevent, and failed to do so. Even the 2C Paris climate goal may be shot through next decade if we carry on our current path. This is beyond infuriating.
The pact talks about tripling renewable energy, and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. But as Damian Carrington pointed out after COP28, they haven’t agreed a baseline so each country could use different baselines to make it look like they’ve met the target.
It talks about how ‘transitional fuels’ can be used. This is a concerning point, because as Damian Carrington explains “transitional fuels” typically refers to gas – another fossil fuel.
I’m pleased with the pledge to reverse deforestation by 2030. I believe it’s possible, but I’m concerned it won’t happen. The reason being that biodiversity targets have been missed before (in 2020, it was reported that the world failed to meet every single target on biodiversity). Therefore, strong ambition will be required to turn this into a reality.
Another interesting pledge was that large corporations would be encouraged to help developing countries with climate action. But this raises many questions, such as which specific corporations, how much they should contribute, how often they should contribute, and who would monitor their contributions, amongst several others pertinent points. The pact offered no answers to any of these questions.
Linked to this, I was also impressed with the pledge to look at the taxation of high net worth individuals. This idea of a wealth tax has been talked about many times, and is desperately needed. But one wonders if the toothless UN can make it a reality, given that they’re up against the power of the wealthiest people on the planet.
AI analysis
If the climate pledges were weak, the AI pledges fell even shorter.
Before analysing the pact’s pledges, I think it would be useful to have a quick reminder on just how rapidly the AI crisis is escalating and what this means for civilisation.
- In a survey published in January 2024 of 2,778 researchers who’d published in top tier AI outlets, 38% of the respondents said there was at least a 10% chance of human extinction caused by AI.
- Two of the three godfathers of AI, Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, along with a large number of AI experts, assigned their names to the following statement: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
- Professor Stuart Russell, one of the leading academics in the field of AI, has warned about the risks of AI in his book Human Compatible. He also writes in a Guardian article, that “Humanity has much to gain from AI, but also everything to lose.”
- In Human Compatible, Stuart Russell chillingly notes that a billion jobs are at risk from AI, while only “five to ten million” data scientist or robot engineer jobs may emerge. If that forecast comes to pass, it would leave 990 million people unemployed. A Goldman Sachs report was more optimistic, saying that ‘only’ around 300 million jobs would be impacted by AI.
- Mustafa Suleyman is a leading AI developer, having co-founded Deepmind (now owned by Google), Inflection AI, and is now CEO of Microsoft AI. In his book, The Coming Wave, he explains that AI isn’t just going to affect jobs, or democracy, or spread disinformation and misinformation, or make it easier to design chemical weapons, or increase the risk of autonomous weapons killing without human intervention, or lead to more disastrous cyberattacks and cyberwarfare, or altering culture by largely removing humans. AI is likely to do all these things, and do them simultaneously in the near future – leaving society completely unprepared and potentially unable to adapt. That is the concept of the wave breaking all around us, at once. He says that AI and synthetic biology, “threatens to empower a diverse array of bad actors to unleash disruption, instability, and even catastrophe on an unimaginable scale.” He goes on to say that, “Those who dismiss catastrophe are, I believe, discounting the objective facts before us.” Remember, that’s coming from the guy developing the technology.
- In a 2023 paper entitled, ‘Managing AI Risks in an Era of Rapid Progress’, some of the world’s leading AI experts came together to warn about the risks and propose a route forward. These experts included two of the three godfathers of AI, Yoshua Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton, as well as Professor Stuart Russell, amongst others. They stated that, “We urgently need national institutions and international governance to enforce standards to prevent recklessness and misuse. Many areas of technology, from pharmaceuticals to financial systems and nuclear energy, show that society requires and effectively uses governance to reduce risks. However, no comparable governance frameworks are currently in place for AI.”
- Yuval Noah Harari, one of the greatest thinkers of our age writes about AI in his book Nexus, saying that, “Humanity is closer than ever to annihilating itself,” and advises that we should “Never summon powers you cannot control.”
Now that we have some context, we can analyse the pact’s commitments on AI. For some reason, the pact kept talking about how AI can enable sustainable development and seemed rather upbeat about AI in general… Given that the experts above are talking about the potential loss of one billion jobs, the upending of society as we know it, and even potentially human extinction, one begins to wonder which of these factors constitute ‘sustainable development’?
To be fair, the pact acknowledges the need to address the “potential risks.” Great. But how? When? AI development is rapidly accelerating and billions of dollars are pouring into tech companies. Time is of the essence. And when it does talk about specific risks like LAWS and the military use of AI, the wording is so weak that it doesn’t constitute a solid pledge, but more an ambition to do something about the risks at some point.
To put it simply, the pact may acknowledge that AI poses risks. But it most certainly doesn’t appreciate the magnitude of the risks, how diverse they are, how unprepared society is, how powerful the tech industry is at lobbying against regulation, and how urgently we need the most stringent possible regulations and international agreements to prevent algorithmic extinction.
The Global Digital Compact also states that AI poses risks and notes that human oversight is essential. But the wording is very loose and doesn’t obligate any organisation to actually do anything. Yes tech companies are told to respect to human rights, stamp out abuse, and tackle misinformation on social media platforms. But as yet, this isn’t enforceable and there is no authority to carry out the enforcement.
The fifth objective in the compact says that it provides an opportunity to advance international AI governance. It intends to establish an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI, which sounds promising (depending on the remit of the organisation). But then it drops an absolute clanger saying that it seeks to begin global dialogue on AI governance, and that this dialogue will take place “in the margins” of existing UN events and conferences. We are talking about a rapidly accelerating threat, which could completely consume our way of life as we know it and potentially end civilisation. And the UN believes the solution is to talk about this “in the margins”… This depressing statement shows just how poorly AI risks are understood and how unprepared humanity is for the tsunami about to submerge us.
AI like the climate crisis, should be front and centre of all talks. And we most certainly don’t have the time for 28 annual meetings on AI like we’ve had on the climate crisis. For both climate scientists and AI experts agree, that this critical decade is when we will potentially win or lose both battles.
The pact then is a heartbreaking let down when it comes to tackling AI and averting the techopalypse.
Conclusion
I was mistakenly hopeful prior to reading the Pact for the Future. To be fair, it had a promising name, and I hoped more than anything else it would provide us with a roadmap for tackling the climate and AI crises. Unfortunately, I was wrong. The pact is comprised of very loose and unspecific wording, which commits few to do anything about much.
I read some external analysis suggesting that this pact may be used as a foundation for future meetings and agreements. But let’s just think about this for a second. The world was alerted to the climate crisis in 1988 by Dr James Hansen. The UNFCCC then came into being in 1994. Since then, we’ve had 28 annual COP climate summits. And it was only at COP28 that countries finally agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels. That’s three decades of failure on the biggest threat humanity has ever faced (until AI came along).
So, saying that the pact might provide the foundation for future agreements – one begins to wonder if there’s enough time left on the clock for that type of glacial process. To be clear, I believe there are people like the UN Secretary-General who are pushing hard and doing excellent work in trying to tackle the biggest issues we’ve ever faced. But I question whether certain country’s representatives are pulling in the same direction, and whether they have their government’s interests in mind, or those of all of humanity.
The future then is still deeply imperilled by the fossil fuel and tech industry. And the majority of political representatives seem completely unfazed about the monumental dangers heading in our direction. As are the majority of media outlets who fail to adequately inform the public about how close we are to breaking point.
I firmly believe one of the most important things that needs to happen is a switch to global citizens’ assemblies to form the basis for international agreements. We desperately require global citizens’ assemblies on AI and climate change. Let people have a say about what needs to happen, and then use that as the basis for stringent global regulations and agreements which every country adheres too.
Politicians have shown they’re incapable of making the decisions this defining century requires, so they must step aside and let the people have a say on the future of our civilisation. I believe this is where the last remaining hope can be found. And find it we must.
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