Protecting the Ozone Layer by Stephen O. Andersen and Marco Gonzalez

The 35th anniversary edition of Protecting the Ozone Layer by Stephen O. Andersen and Marco Gonzalez, provides an invaluable source of inspiration for tackling both the climate emergency and the AI crisis.

It focuses on the landmark Montreal Protocol, which “is widely considered the most successful multinational environment agreement” ever created. Every country is a Party to the Montreal Protocol, and remains in full compliance with their obligations to phase out ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Over 99% of ODSs have been phased out, thanks to the Protocol.

The book explains how collaboration between numerous individuals, organisations and corporations proved to be necessary for this incredible agreement to be formed, and for it to remain in force today. I believe this is vital reading for those seeking to address both the climate and AI crises, given that there are many lessons to be learnt. Please be aware that the following review contains spoilers.

Terminology

Before diving into the review, it’s worth covering some key terminology. The following definitions are adapted from Protecting the Ozone Layer.

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): chemicals which contain carbon, chlorine, and fluorine atoms. They were found in a range of products, including pesticides, deodorants, refrigerators, and hair spray.
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs): chemicals similar to CFCs, which are comprised of carbon, chlorine, fluorine, and hydrogen atoms. They have lower ozone-depleting potential compared to CFCs.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs): chemicals that are related to CFCs, but which don’t destroy the ozone layer as they don’t contain any chlorine or bromine. Instead, they’re made up of a carbon atom (or carbon atoms) which are surrounded by hydrogen and fluorine atoms. They are still widely used as refrigerants, despite having a high global heating potential (thereby worsening climate change).
Ozone: a naturally forming gas in the atmosphere, made up of three oxygen atoms (comprised of atomic oxygen and molecular oxygen). Ozone acts as a shield and blocks harmful UV radiation from passing through the atmosphere.
Ozone layer: located in the stratosphere, around 15-60km above Earth. This acts as a shield and filters out harmful UV radiation.
Stratosphere: a part of the atmosphere located above the troposphere, around 15-60km above Earth.

The Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol is one of the most successful international agreements in history, and was the first multilateral environmental agreement to have global participation. “No other treaties, on any topic, has universal participation.” In addition, the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol are the first and only treaties to gain universal ratification.

It was designed in such a way that allows it to evolve as any new atmospheric challenges emerge. On the 16^th September 1987, only 25 UN states and the EU signed the protocol. But today, it has been signed by ever member state and every observer state at the UN. Initially it targeted removing halon and reducing CFC production by half. It has now evolved to phase out 99% of all ODSs.

The protocol has been strengthened seven times to control ODSs. It has also been amended five times specifically targeting new chemical substances. An example of one of these measures was the 2016 Kigali Amendment, to phase down HFCs, which made the Montreal Protocol a climate treaty, as well as an ozone treaty (HFCs have high global warming potential, even though they’re ‘ozone-safe’).

There are a number of factors that have made the Montreal Protocol successful:

It recognised that every country has a responsibility to protect the ozone layer, whilst also acknowledging and prioritising the circumstances and needs of countries at different stages of development. As such, it developed a framework that fostered global cooperation.
Despite the fact that the protocol was largely made by developed countries, there were provisions in there to assist developing nations, such as a grace period of up to a decade for phasing out ODSs.
The protocol had exemptions so that some ODSs could still be produced for critical uses such as medical equipment. It also monitored these critical uses, and eliminated them as alternatives to ODSs became available. As such, neither society nor the economy were unduly disrupted.
Article 5 Parties, which are mainly developing countries, were supported financially by the Multilateral Fund. Around 49 primarily developed countries provided the funding, and four agencies implemented it, including the World Bank, UNEP, UNDP, and UNIDO.
The principle of ‘start and strengthen’ was applied, which enabled the protocol to make a start with phasing out ODSs, and gradually increase the targets over time as both the scientific case built, and alternative chemicals became available. The book makes it clear that this was one of the key factors that made the Montreal Protocol a historic success.
In Partnering, Jean Oelwang writes about the protocol, saying that, “Deep connections and moral courage saved humanity.”

The outcome of the Montreal Protocol is quite staggering. Not only has it phased out ODSs, which has seen the hole in the ozone layer shrink, but it has also avoided a mind-blowing level of warming by reducing these substances. The Ozone Secretariat estimates that 2.5C of warming will be avoided by 2100, because of the Montreal Protocol. This is an unbelievable achievement, and one that rarely gets talked about. The book shows that humanity has worked together to tackle a seemingly impossible issue before, and can therefore rise up to tackle the climate emergency now.

Key people

There were countless individuals who were crucial to enacting the Montreal Protocol, including a few hundred who comprised the Montreal Protocol core community. Below is a selection of six key figures who played a significant role in saving humanity.

Mostafa Kamal Tolba – the Executive Director of UNEP, who was given the nickname of ‘Father of the Montreal Protocol.’ He began discussions, which culminated in the World Plan of Action of the Ozone Layer. He organised international meetings, created negotiating groups, brought in scientists, and led diplomats and activists in developing the Ozone Treaties. This led to the signing of the Vienna Convention on the 22^nd March 1985 and the Montreal Protocol on 16^th September 1987.
Stephen O. Andersen – Stephen played a critical role in implementing the Montreal Protocol and driving the phase-out of ODSs across the world. He was a member of Mostafa Kamal Tolba’s Informal Advisory Group, and also founded and co-chaired the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) and its Solvents Technical Options Committee. His work has been recognised through many awards from a number of governments. Most notably, he received the 2021 Future of Life Award for protecting the ozone layer.
Dr Mack McFarland – in the book he is credited as one of the dozen most important individuals who pushed to protect the ozone layer. The irony here is that Mack was employed by DuPont, which was the first company that marketed CFCs, and also happened to be one of the largest producers of ODSs when the Montreal Protocol was signed. Thus, he was fighting two battles, the first to get his company and industry to change, and the second to wake up the world to the threat posed by ODSs. He was science-driven and was called “honest”, “heroic”, and “essential to the success of the Montreal Protocol.”
James E. Lovelock – creator of the Gaia theory, and inventor of the electron capture detector. It was by using this detector in 1972, that Lovelock measured the presence of CFCs in Southern England and Southern Ireland in the summertime. That same year, he went on a voyage from the UK to Antarctica and measured CFCs in the atmosphere. His data would spur Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland to put forward the idea that CFCs were destroying the ozone layer. Lovelock showed that CFCs remained in the atmosphere and spread across the planet for a lot longer than was originally thought.
Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood (Sherry) Rowland – Mario attended the University of California Irvine and alongside Rowland, decided to focus on what happened to CFCs after they were emitted. In 1974, they published their first paper in the journal Nature. They believed that CFCs stayed in the atmosphere for anywhere between 40 and 150 years, warning that when they reached the stratosphere, UV radiation from the sun caused them to decompose, and in the process release chlorine, which ultimately destroyed ozone at a rapid rate. These two scientists tried to engage politicians, the media, the public, and businesses to act on their findings. But they were roundly attacked by corporations, as well as by scientists who believed it wrong for researchers to push for change. As a result, their careers suffered in numerous ways. Yet they both persevered (fortunately for every single human alive today), because they simply had to given the gravity of what was at stake. Sherry at one point is believed to have said, ‘If not now, when? If not us, who?’ Over a decade later in 1985, they were vindicated when British Scientists in Antarctica discovered the hole in the ozone layer.

Why discovering the ozone hole mattered

The ozone layer reduces the force of UV radiation that hits the earth from the sun. Without this shield, rates of skin cancer and cataracts would skyrocket, our immune systems would be compromised, ecosystems would be destroyed and agriculture would take a massive hit. “As scientific breakthroughs go, this one was huge. Nothing less than the future of humanity and life on Earth was at stake.”

It’s worth noting that in 1974, the year that Mario and Sherry published their paper, CFC production was at 900,000 tons a year, equating to an $8 billion industry. Few believed that CFCs were a risk. Even as the scientific case grew, people were slow to understand the magnitude of the risk. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) asked the public for feedback on the idea of restrictions on CFCs in 1980. They received 2,300 letters, only four of which were in favour of restricting CFCs. The other 2,296 were strongly against restrictions. This shows what scientists and UN diplomats were up against, ahead of bringing the Montreal Protocol into force in 1987.

Had the Montreal Protocol not been ratified, it’s believed that someone living in 2050 would receive dangerous levels of sunburn in just five minutes. According to estimates from the EPA in the US, around 280 million people may have got skin cancer, and 1.5 million people could have lost their lives to cancer, had CFCs not been phased out. These are just estimates for the US… Therefore, the global toll would’ve been much higher.

Environment Canada estimated that the benefits to forests, fisheries, agriculture and the built environment exceed the cost of implementing the Montreal Protocol by $235 billion.

Thus, when Paul Crutzen, Mario J. Molina, and F. Sherwood Rowland received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995, it was for the primary reason that, “Without a protective ozone layer in the atmosphere, animals and plants could not exist, at least upon land.”

In addition, ODSs also had massive global warming potential, and it’s likely they would’ve pushed the climate past tipping points, resulting in climate chaos.

The Precautionary Principle

At the time of developing the ozone treaties, the science was still in its infancy. As such, acting on ODSs in the early stages of scientific uncertainty became the basis of the ‘Precautionary Principle.’

The World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology defines the Precautionary Principle as, “an approach to guiding decisions when there is a plausible risk of irreversible consequences that would be unacceptable.”

It can be used proactively to prevent certain human actions, or applied reactively to curtail any future harms caused by people. The book states that in the decade after the Montreal Protocol (1989 -1999), “the precautionary principle was applied aggressively every 2 to 3 years.”

I believe more than ever, the precautionary principle needs to be applied today to the accelerating threat of algorithmic extinction.

How the Montreal Protocol got across the line

After Mario and Sherry published their paper in 1974, it would be another 13 years before the Montreal Protocol came into effect in 1987. In those intervening years, much was done to bring together stakeholders to act in humanity’s best interests.

Stephen O. Andersen and Mostafa Kamal Tolba played a large part in negotiating the Montreal Protocol. In their book, Ozone Connections, Penelope Canan and Nancy Reichman, say that Stephen and Mostafa had mastered the idea of ‘collaborative leadership’. “They inspire others, create the institutional space for co-operation among equals, determine membership and create norms of reciprocity, action, consensus and camaraderie… They literally create the conditions for shared excellence.”

Stephen was able to avert conflict by structuring meetings that harmonised the interests of the people in the room. He avoided giving out broad invitations, instead inviting experts who were talented, influential and knowledgeable. These experts were identified by looking at their skills, personality, and whether they were open to new ways of thinking. Crucially, he avoided those who weren’t team players. Everyone was given specific responsibilities at meetings, so as to avoid conflict.

People were brought into a safe space, and told to let slip their “cloak of authority” and instead receive “jury instruction.” This allowed them to come up with decisions from the viewpoint of a global citizen, ensuring that what they put forward was best for humanity. Stephen was also quick to ask people to leave when they made it apparent they were only there to undermine the group and failed to show respect for other participants. This prevented them from poisoning the wider group.

Stephen would also invite spouses and family members to conferences. Not only did this foster community, but it helped families of those involved understand what was trying to be achieved and the process that was being followed. Andersen said in the book that, ‘I realized that these spouses were often clueless about what their partner had done. But they were suffering because of my demands on their spouse’s time.’ By inviting them to these events, he was able to make them an ally in the cause and build pride around what was taking place.

It’s therefore not much of a surprise to learn that participants came to learn that friendships were essential for ensuring talks remained on course, and for avoiding conflict. In Australia, the Victorian Government organised for participants to go out for a pizza and a glass of wine the night before a meeting. Not only were these evenings used to conduct business, but agreement arose on core issues.

In addition, Mostafa would be present at private meetings and put forward questions in a respectful manner, such as ‘What is stopping the United States from agreeing to this vision and set of solutions? What would need to change to make this work?’ In this manner, countries would work through their issues and chart paths towards solutions. Thus, countries left these private meetings with an idea of how to overcome the barriers they’d been facing and when they returned to the official negotiating table, they could propose solutions that were likely to be more agreeable.

On a political level, Margaret Thatcher was the Prime Minister at the time. She was a trained chemist, who was initially sceptical about the hole in the ozone layer. However, that changed after she spent a weekend going over a briefing that had been prepared by a range of people, including Joe Farman, Jonathan Shanklin, and Brian Gardiner, who had discovered the hole in ozone layer over Antarctica. By the Sunday evening, she was convinced about the magnitude of the issue and the urgent need for action. She recognised that it was unfair to place the burden on developing countries who hadn’t caused the problem, “Clearly it would be intolerable for the countries which have already industrialized, and have caused the greater part of the problems we face, to expect others to pay the price in terms of their people’s hopes and well-being.”

In the US, President Ronald Reagan, had become equally convinced by his secretary of state, George Shultz. Thus, the two free-market fundamentalists became “a formidable pair of unlikely environmental activists.”

In a speech in March 1989, Thatcher made a statement that remains equally true today given the escalating climate crisis, “For centuries mankind has worked on the assumption that we could pursue the goal of steady progress without disturbing the fundamental equilibrium of the world’s atmosphere and its living systems… In a very short space of time that comfortable assumption has been shattered.”

One of the chapters in the book gives the following advice for those trying to tackle similar issues:

Be passionate about doing the right thing for humanity
Listen and don’t judge
Understand the correct course of action and how to achieve the necessary goals
Research the negatives, but know the correct direction when you begin
Stick to the truth
Be kind to everyone “except the soulless”
Shadow champions and leaders

Timeline

Below is an indicative timeline of events that led to the Montreal Protocol coming into effect, and the things that have happened since.

1880-1881 – Walter Noel Hartley identifies ozone as the gas responsible for filtering out UV radiation.
1928 – CFCs invented by General Motors. They were marketed by General Motors and Du Pont as an alternative for replacing flammable and toxic chemicals which were used as refrigerants.
1928 – George H. Findlay discovers that skin cancer is caused by UV radiation.
1929 – Paris is host to the first International Ozone Conference.
1933 onwards – Dorothy Fisk and Charles Abbot make a strong case that the ozone layer is crucial for protecting all life on earth from the harms of UV radiation.
1936 – Oxford hosts the second International Ozone Conference.
1955 – The International Ozone Commission (IOC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) propose establishing a global network to monitor ozone.
1956-1958 – WMO and IOC establish the Global Ozone Observing System.
1962 – Rachel Carson warns about the dangers of synthetic chemicals on human health and the damage it causes to ecosystems.
1970 – Paul J. Crutzen shows that nitrogen oxide destroys ozone.
1970 – James E. Lovelock’s electron capture detector is shown to be capable of measuring atmospheric CFCs in parts per trillion.
1971-2 – James E. Lovelock issues a warning that CFCs are accumulating in the atmosphere.
1974 – Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland issue a warning that humanity is destroying the ozone layer. They estimate that ozone is depleting at 7-13% based on the current level of CFC production. In September of 1974, they call for cosmetic and convenience aerosol products to be banned (e.g. pesticides, hairspray, and deodorants).
1975 – Veerabhadran Ramanathan warns that the majority of ODSs are also greenhouse gases (which lead to global heating).
1978 – US bans the majority of aerosol products containing CFCs.
1981 – By this point, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Canada had banned aerosol products containing CFCs.
1983 – Stephen Seidel from the US EPA Strategic Studies Staff of the Office of Policy Analysis issues a warning that increasing levels of CO2, CFCs, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases could lead to a 2C – 5C rise in temperatures by 2050.
1985 – In March, the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer is signed by 21 nations and the EU. In May 1985, Joseph C. Farman, Brian G. Gardiner, and Jonathan D. Shanklin, say that Antarctic ozone has depleted by 30-40% since 1977. F. Sherwood (Sherry) Rowland dubs this the ‘Ozone Hole’.
1987 – The Montreal Protocol is signed by 24 countries and the European Economic Community. Halon is to be banned and CFCs are to be phased down by 50% in the initial ‘start and strengthen’ agreement. Mexico is the first nation to sign and ratify the protocol, followed by the US.
2009 – Timor-Leste ratifies the Ozone Treaties, meaning that universal ratification was finally achieved on 16^th September 2009 with all 196 parties signed up including the 192 UN member states, in addition to the Holy See, Cook Islands, Niue, and the EU. Since then, new nations have formed meaning that universal ratification was temporarily lost, up until those new nations ratified the Ozone Treaties. In 2019, Palestine ratified the Ozone Treaties and universal ratification was regained and has since been maintained.
2016 – The Kigali Amendment schedules a phasedown of ozone-safe HFCs. As these are ozone-safe, the main reason for phasing them down is due to their global warming potential.
2065 – the predicted date that the Antarctic Ozone Hole will recover and return to 1980 conditions.

Since 2007, the Montreal Protocol has adopted changes to combat climate change. As such, the Montreal Protocol has done more than any other agreement or effort, to tackle the climate crisis.

Climate change

“The state of the planet is broken…. Humanity is waging war on nature. This is suicidal. Nature always strikes back—and it is already doing so with growing force and fury.” – António Guterres, UN Secretary-General (2 December 2020)

I find it quite amazing that a treaty designed to tackle the hole in the ozone layer has done more to tackle the climate emergency, than any other agreement, including the Kyoto Protocol (according to Guus J. M. Velders and his colleagues who carried out research to this effect in 2007). I also find it quite depressing that humanity came together to tackle the hole in the ozone layer, but have failed to halt climate breakdown for over 36 years.

Nonetheless, work to tackle ODSs has had a profound impact on helping to slow climate breakdown. It’s estimated that if CFC emissions had continued growing, that the impact on global warming in 2014, would’ve been around double the total yearly greenhouse gas emissions. As a result of the 2016 Kigali Amendment, 0.1C of warming is estimated to be avoided by 2050, and around 0.5C of warming avoided by 2100.

Research in May 2022, showed that cutting non-CO2 pollutants such as HFCs, methane, black carbon, and nitrous oxide could avoid four times the level of warming in 2050, than decarbonisation on its own. Given what cutting non-CO2 pollutants has done for the planet so far, it would appear wise to follow this effort in conjunction with simultaneously cutting CO2 emissions.

The role of art

I’ve previously written about the fact that humans are creatures of story. While facts engage the analytical part of our brain, stories engage the emotional part of our brain, which can ultimately result in behavioural change.

It therefore came as no surprise when I learned that an episode of the American sitcom, All in the Family, was cited by PBS as being the ‘death knell’ for the aerosol industry’s use of CFCs. This is something I wrote about in an article for Mongabay. The episode in question was called Gloria’s Shock, and was watched live by 20 million people. In the episode, Mike explained to his wife Gloria, that spray cans use an aerosol propellant that destroys ozone, which in turn protects us from harmful UV radiation. “He warns that only God knows what the rays do to crops and other plants. Mike adds urgency by saying that some scientists predict the world will be in big trouble in 10 years.” People first boycotted these hairspray products, which was followed by local, state, and government bans on these ozone-depleting sprays.

In Protecting the Ozone Layer, the authors note that the value of art lies in the fact that it’s a universal language, transcending science and entering the realms of pop culture. Music is one such form which has tackled the problem. One of the first artists to sing about the ozone layer, was Don McLean on his album, Prime Time. Since then, a number of musicians have sung about the ozone layer including:

Public Enemy (Public Enemy No. 1)
Neil Young (Rockin in the Free World)
Lou Reed (Sick of You)
Dire Straits (My Parties)
Warren Zevon (Run Straight Down)
Paul McCartney (‘Rescue the Future Tour‘)
David Lee Roth (You’re Breathing It)
Eminem (Role Model)
The Cranberries (Time Is Ticking Out)

The authors state that as with the hole in the ozone layer, they expect art to help tackle the climate crisis, and “are hopeful that art will expand our understanding and awareness.” On this subject, I reviewed Storytelling to Accelerate Climate Solutions, which explores the scientific basis of how stories can tackle the climate crisis.

Summary

It’s incredible how little coverage the Montreal Protocol receives, despite the fact that it remains “the most successful environmental treaty ever negotiated.” Alongside the Vienna Convention, they remain the only treaties on any topic to obtain universal ratification.

The Montreal Protocol protected the ozone layer, which shields us from harmful UV radiation. Without the Protocol, it’s likely that humanity would’ve faced a future whereby we couldn’t be outside during the daytime due to UV radiation, and where our crops would’ve been severely damaged by the radiation, raising the spectre of civilisational collapse. Not only that, but the Protocol also tackled ODSs with high global warming potential, and it’s estimated that in doing so, we’ve avoided 2.5C of warming by the end of the 21^st century. As such, the Montreal Protocol has done more to tackle the climate emergency than any other treaty.

The Precautionary Principle was developed to enable countries to reduce ODSs, even as the science was still in its infancy. This principle can serve an equally important purpose in this day and age by helping us tackle both the climate and AI crises, as the science continues to build.

A number of people played a crucial role in getting the Montreal Protocol across the line, and showed the importance of collaborative leadership – something we desperately need to tackle our current global issues.

It’s also worth noting the power of art in helping attitudes shift. This is displayed clearly by the episode of All in the Family, which led to the death knell of the aerosol industry.

In some ways, it feels like those who made the Montreal Protocol a reality have become forgotten heroes. The 35^th anniversary edition of Protecting the Ozone Layer, has done an important job of ensuring their names and their monumental achievements and services to humanity will live on. It’s my sincere hope that the book will also serve to inspire global action on today’s most pressing issues.

For the latest update on the state of the ozone layer, you can read UNEP’s 2022 report here.

My cli-fi children’s picture book, Nanook and the Melting Arctic is available from Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US. My eco-fiction children’s picture book, Hedgey-A and the Honey Bees about how pesticides affect bees, is available on Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US.

Protecting the Ozone Layer by Stephen O. Andersen and Marco Gonzalez – Review