UK General Election 2024: Manifesto Analysis of the Big Issues

On the 4^th July, the nation goes to the polls once again. If current predictions are to be believed, we’re on course for a new Prime Minister; the first Labour one in nearly a decade and a half. That would give the UK its sixth Prime Minister in just over eight years.

A great deal of analysis of party manifestos is taking place across the media. But, I fear many of the big global issues are being sidelined, as politicians and the media focus on topical national issues that will dominate the airwaves over the next Parliament. Short term thinking is trumping long term planning. As Roman Krznaric says in The Good Ancestor, “We live in an age of pathological short-termism.”

One example of the kind of planning we need is that attributed to the Iroquois, of planning seven generations ahead. As a PBS article explains, “The seventh generation principle dictates that decisions that are made today should lead to sustainability for seven generations into the future.”

Yet, most parties give little consideration to the future. That’s a massive mistake in this defining century, which climate and AI experts warn could see civilisation brought to its knees. Therefore, the purpose of this blog is to analyse how parties plan to address the big issues.

Selection of parties for manifesto analysis

In this blog post, I’ve focused on the top five political parties as predicted by vote share. As things stand at the time of writing on the 19^th June 2024, the BBC’s poll tracker predicts the following vote share:

Labour – 41%
Conservatives – 21%
Reform UK – 16%
Liberal Democrats – 11%
Green – 6%

Therefore, these are the five parties I’ve focused on.

Methodology and primary questions

To shape my research, I took guidance from Yuval Noah Harari, who wrote the following advice about elections in his book, 21 Lessons for the 21^st Century:

“When the next elections come along, and politicians are imploring you to vote for them, ask these politicians four questions: if you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war? What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change? What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering? And finally, how do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?”

These are the questions I’ve focused on for this piece. I’ll explain why below.

Climate change and AI are indeed the two most pressing threats the world faces. Thus, it’s important to find out where this current crop of politicians stands of these issues.

Harari’s book was published in 2018, so the question he poses regarding 2040 is pertinent, as it will show whether politicians are thinking beyond the next few election cycles. Given that 2040 is quite a specific date, my methodology when looking through the manifestos was to look for visions for 2040 or beyond.

The one question possibly raising eyebrows from Harari’s list is the one regarding nuclear war. Up until a few years ago, the idea of nuclear war was far removed from my mind – a relict of the cold war, and nothing more. That changed with the invasion of Ukraine, and after reading Daniel Ellsberg’s book, The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner. Ellsberg, who passed away last year, was the whistleblower who leaked the Pentagon Papers. Whilst nuclear warheads are far less numerous now than during the cold war, Ellsberg says that stockpiled weapons are numerous enough to create a nuclear winter which would kill billions of humans, if not eradicate most life.

Ellsberg writes in The Doomsday Machine that, “The United States and Russia each have an actual Doomsday Machine…These two systems still risk doomsday: both are still on hair-trigger alert that makes their joint existence unstable. They are susceptible to being triggered on a false alarm, a terrorist action, unauthorized launch, or a desperate decision to escalate. They would kill billions of humans, perhaps ending complex life on earth.” If you’ve read Toby Ord’s book, The Precipice, you’ll understand why this is a huge concern as there have been a string of nuclear near misses, due to technical issues and human mistakes which almost triggered the final war of humankind. There are also discussions taking place to increase the number of deployable nuclear warheads (there are currently 9,585 nuclear warheads in the world).

Thus, I believe Harari’s four questions are particularly pertinent for politicians to answer.

Contacting the political parties

Whilst I intended for this blog to simply be an analysis of political manifestos, I also appreciate that some of the questions (e.g. ‘how do you see the world of 2040’) are quite specific. Therefore, I reached out to each of the five parties explaining that I was writing this review, and that I was seeking to answer the four questions from Yuval Noah Harari’s book. I informed them that I’d use their manifestos to answer the questions, but also gave them an opportunity to provide additional information over and above what was in their manifesto, if they wished. I gave each party one week to respond, with a deadline of Wednesday 26^th June, notifying them that the blog would be published after this.

None of the five parties responded to this invitation.

Manifesto analysis

In the analysis that follows, I’ve listed the parties in alphabetical order. Each party is assessed using the four questions from Harari’s book, followed by my verdict.

Conservative Party

If you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war?

The Conservative manifesto doesn’t specifically address the issue of nuclear war.

However, it does specify that they’ll continue supporting Trident. Aside from that, the manifesto only talks about what the Conservatives have done in the past, including:

Investing £5 billion “in stockpiles and our nuclear enterprise,” as part of The Integrated Review.
Modernising Trident with “a nuclear skills package worth up to £763 million by 2030.”

What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change?

The Conservatives have a dedicated section dealing with net zero, entitled, ‘Our plan for an affordable and pragmatic transition to net zero.’ They write about their achievements in government, but I’ll focus purely on what they intend to do if re-elected.

It’s unfortunate that despite warnings from climate scientists that we can’t develop any new oil and gas fields, that the Conservatives plan to allow new oil and gas developments in the North Sea, stating that, “We will legislate to ensure annual licensing rounds for oil and gas production from our own North Sea.” They pledge new gas power stations, to “back up renewables and prevent the prospect of blackouts.” In addition, they will reform “the Climate Change Committee, giving it an explicit mandate to consider cost to households and UK energy security in its future climate advice.” The Climate Change Committee was designed to advise the government on how to meet their climate obligations. By changing the remit in this way, it opens the door for them to promote fossil fuels as a form of ‘energy security.’ This would contravene the purpose of the Climate Change Committee, and call into question the UK’s climate commitments.

It’s in this light that the following pledges should be viewed – because simply put, the fossil fuel pledges above make a mockery of tackling the climate crisis. Their climate-related pledges include:

Maintaining a windfall tax on oil and gas companies until 2028-29, “unless prices fall back to normal sooner.”
In the next Parliament, they’ll:
- Treble offshore wind capacity.
- Build two carbon capture and storage clusters.
- Invest £1.1 billion in the Green Industries Growth Accelerator.
- Approve two new fleets of Small Modular Reactors, within 100 days of the next Parliament starting. They intend to halve the amount of time it takes for nuclear reactors to be approved.
- Deliver a new gigawatt power plant at Wylfa in North Wales (I believe they’re referring to a nuclear plant).
Implementing a carbon pricing mechanism by 2027 on imports of steel, iron, cement, and ceramics, to ensure that there is near parity with resources produced in the UK.
Committing to not forcing people to replace their existing boilers with a heat pump.
Ensuring green levies on household bills are lower, and ruling out the creation of additional green levies.
Ruling out a frequent flyer levy.
Funding “an energy efficiency voucher scheme, open to every household in England, to support the installation of energy efficiency measures and solar panels, helping families lower their bills.”
Ensuring “democratic consent for onshore wind.”
Supporting solar, but only in certain places and not on the “best agricultural land.” They also say that their “new planning rules also prevent multiple solar farms being clustered in one area to help protect our rural landscapes.”
Retaining the moratorium on fracking.

Scattered through the rest of the manifesto are other climate titbits, which are worth noting. They pledge to “strengthen police powers to prevent protests or marches that pose a risk of serious disorder, by allowing police to take into account the cumulative impact of protests.” They also talk about how their Public Order Act 2023, led to the arrest of more than 600 Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil protestors. So, on the one hand they pledge more oil and gas licences to worsen the climate crisis, and on the other, they pledge to clamp down on protestors calling them out for worsening the climate crisis – all while claiming to being committed to their climate target of net zero by 2050. Right… They also pledge to reverse the ULEZ expansion in London, claiming that it “only has a ‘moderate’ or ‘minor’ effect on pollution.” Other climate-related pledges include:

Backing British Sustainable Aviation Fuel, as part of a commitment to supporting “the growth and decarbonisation of our aviation sector.”
Maintaining “leadership on climate change we achieved at COP26 and our efforts to tackle global warming and biodiversity loss.”
Continuing to ring-fence International Climate Finance.
Extending the £2 bus fare cap in England “for the entirety of the next Parliament.”
Working with Active Travel England to help improve safety for walkers and cyclists.
Continuing to deliver their tree planting and peatland commitments.
Removing red tape holding back tree planting, and streamlining tree planting processes.
Introducing legislation on forest risk commodities (commodities that result in, or cause, deforestation).
Backing the North Sea Transition Deal and Aberdeen City Region Deal, which will help Scotland’s workforce retrain in renewables as oil and gas production falls.

What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering?

There was no mention of AI regulation or bioengineering in the Conservative manifesto.

However, some of their AI pledges scattered throughout the manifesto included:

“Automated vehicles will be on British roads in the next Parliament.”
Investing more than £1.5 billion in large-scale compute clusters, in the next Parliament, to “take advantage of the potential of AI”, and supporting research into using it safely and responsibly.
“Doubling digital and AI expertise in the civil service.”
Using AI “to free up doctors’ and nurses’ time for frontline patient care.”
Creating new legislation on sexualised deepfake images.
Ensuring that creators are protected and paid for their work, “whilst also making the most of the opportunities of AI and its applications for creativity in the future.”

How do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?

The Conservative manifesto doesn’t address the world of 2040 or beyond.

My verdict on the Conservative manifesto

The Conservatives aren’t committed to tackling the most pressing threats the world faces.

They have no pledges regarding avoiding nuclear war or playing a role on the global stage in seeking to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world. Instead, they only talk about their investment pledges in nuclear deterrents such as Trident. Any of the positive climate pledges are overshadowed by a number of things, including their commitment to annual licence approvals for developing oil and gas in the North Sea. This will worsen the climate crisis.

Whilst they acknowledge AI safety in their manifesto, they have no commitments on regulating AI. Instead, they talk about ways that AI can be rolled out. This is grossly irresponsible. That being said, their commitment to protecting the creative industries was welcomed, as was their pledge on legislating deepfakes – but one wonders why they haven’t already done this given that they’ve been in power for 14 years, and also as they claimed that the UK was a leader on AI safety.

They had no vision for 2040 or beyond. Instead, their pledges are short-sighted, and at times contradictory. Based on this manifesto, this party won’t make anywhere near the level of changes we need if civilisation is to survive this tumultuous century.

Green Party

If you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war?

The Green Party will push to get the UK signed up to the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). They say this will be followed by the immediate dismantling of the UK’s nuclear weapons, cancelling Trident, and removing nuclear weapons belonging to other countries from our soil. In addition, they seek to enlarge international membership of the TPNW, and ensure that countries meet their Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty commitments. In regards to NATO reforms, they want to see a commitment to ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons.

What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change?

The Green Party’s manifesto is infused with climate change pledges. Most significant of which is to push for the next government to reach net zero by 2040 or sooner. Their goals are well thought out and very progressive compared to the other party manifestos. Given how the climate crisis has shaped much of their manifesto (as indeed it should shape every manifesto) and the pledges are so numerous, I’ve tried to group them under sub-headings below to make it easier to read. Even when condensed, their climate pledges are still extensive.

Housing/Buildings

Push to bring about a ‘Fairer, Greener Homes Guarantee’. This will ensure that homes are properly insulated, amongst other things.
Introduction of a local-authority led retrofit scheme, “to insulate our homes, to provide non fossil-fuel heat and start to adapt our buildings to the more extreme weather.”
Aim to change regulations so that new homes are built to Passivhaus or similar standards. New homes would be required to have solar panels, and “low carbon heating systems such as heat pumps.” Homes would need to have a minimum EPC rating of a C.
£29bn will be invested over five years to insulate existing homes (£17bn for privately owned homes, and £12bn for social housing), so they achieve an EPC rating of B, or higher.
£4bn will be invested over five years to insulate public buildings, such as schools and hospitals. £1bn will also be set aside for private sector buildings.
£9bn will be invested over five years on heating systems, such as heats pumps for a range of buildings.
£7bn will be invested over five years to adapt homes for hotter summers.
Planning applications will need to incorporate whole-life carbon and energy calculations, spanning the construction, maintenance, and use of the building/development. In addition, residents of new developments shouldn’t need to be car dependent.

Transport

Increase subsidies to £10bn for rail and bus travel over five years.
Free bus travel for under-18s.
Additional £19bn investment in the next Parliament on public transport, electrification of railways, new cycleways and footpaths (the latter of which will receive £2.5bn per year).
Investment in railways, so they’re affordable, efficient, modern, and publicly owned.
Push to identify lines and stations that could be re-opened through a national strategic approach.
Enable local authorities to improve bus services, by giving them power and funding. Ensure that every village has a bus service.
Oppose new road building plans.
Diesel and petrol vehicles replaced by Electric Vehicles (EVs) within ten years (no diesel or petrol vehicles on the road by 2035). New petrol and diesel vehicles will stop being sold by 2027. This will be supported by a scrappage scheme with funding rising to £5bn in five years, as well as a rapid rollout of charging points.
Adopt proposals from Active Travel England, for 50% of trips in towns and cities, “to be walked, wheeled or cycled by 2030.”
Campaign to introduce a frequent flyer levy for the 15% of people who are responsible for 70% of flights.
Propose to ban domestic flights, which have an equivalent train journey time of less than three hours.
Apply the carbon tax to kerosene fuel sold for aviation in the UK.
Halt airport expansion.
Invest in airport workers retraining to find alternative jobs as flights decline.
Prioritise investing in innovation to move HGVs and mobile machinery away from using fossil fuels.

Energy

Aim to have wind providing 70% of the UK’s electricity before 2030.
End the ban on onshore wind.
Aim to have “80GW of offshore wind, 53 GW of onshore wind, and 100 GW of solar,” by 2035.
Incentivise the uptake of renewables through mechanisms such as, “installation grants and green mortgages, as well as reducing VAT.”
Introduction of support for renewables such as “marine, hydro-power and geothermal, to provide much of the remainder of the UK’s energy supply by 2030.”
“The Crown Estate will be brought into public ownership and should open more coastal waters for offshore wind and marine energy.”
No new oil and gas licences will be issued.
Push to stop new fossil fuel extraction projects, and cancel recently granted licences such as Rosebank.
End subsidies for the oil and gas industry.
Support an increase in the windfall tax on oil and gas companies, whilst closing tax loopholes.
Introduction of a carbon tax on fossil fuels which will be raised over the course of a decade, to speed up the uptake of renewable energy. A carbon tax will also be used as an incentive to help businesses decarbonise their supply chains. Proposal of a carbon tax of £120/tonne, which will reach £500/tonne within 10 years. They estimate this will generate up to £80bn by the end of Parliament, before failing as carbon emissions reduce.
Establish an ‘Offshore Energy and Skills Passport’ to help workers transition from dirty energy to clean energy industries. They pledge to invest £4bn a year as part of a skills and retraining package to help workers transition. Regional strategies will be devised to capitalise on industrial strengths across the country, as part of this transition.
Pledge that communities will own their energy sources, and committed to getting the energy sector “under local democratic control as far as is possible.” As part of this:
- A minimum threshold will be established for community ownership of sustainable energy infrastructure.
- Regulatory barriers on community energy will be removed.
- Regional investment banks will invest in community energy.
- The Local Electricity Bill will be championed, to make it cheaper and easier for local renewable projects to supply their communities.
Expand and improve the efficiency of the electricity grid, to cope with the switch away from fossil fuels.
Connect electricity supply more with European countries, to enable us to import or export electricity as needed.
Expand energy storage capacity, to cope with peaks and troughs in electricity usage, and the intermittency of renewable energy generation.
Increase the use of green hydrogen for industrial and energy storage purposes.
Biofuels will be properly regulated, and only those sourced in the UK will be allowed.
Biomass subsidies will be stopped.
Importing wood for Drax power station will be stopped.
Pledge to cease development of new nuclear power stations, focusing instead on renewables.

Economy

To transition to a greener economy, they estimate they’ll need to invest £40bn each year over the next parliament (which lasts for five years, hence a total investment of £200bn over that period). The spending over those five years is listed as follows:

Electricity generation, transmission and storage – £50bn
Retrofitting buildings, installing non-fossil fuel heating systems, and adapting homes for a climate changed world – £50bn
Investing in a modern, electrified railway – £30bn
Public transport infrastructure – £7bn
Active travel – £6bn
Reducing the climate impact of road transport – £4bn
Reducing emissions from industry – £11bn
Water and sewage infrastructure – £12bn
Nationalisation of water companies and Big 5 retail energy companies – £30bn

They also say that:

They’ll make the financial services industry a force for good, by directing finances towards those companies that are creating a better future.
New indicators will be used to measure economic success, which will take into account the wellbeing of people and the planet.
Advocating for a circular economy, including 10 year warranties on white goods, the ‘right to repair’ to do away with inbuilt obsolescence, neighbourhood libraries for tools and equipment, and a shift away from ownership to usership (e.g. car sharing).
Campaign to amend the “Companies Act 2006 so that company directors must prioritise the well-being of all living entities (including all nations, all species and future generations, as well as all people alive today) and avoid negative environmental and social consequences.”
Companies holding a UK banking licence will need to outline their plan for divesting their fossil fuel assets, which will need to be achieved by 2030 at the latest.
The Bank of England will receive a new mandate for making the sustainability transition their primary objective. Lending will be prioritised for the sustainability transition. In addition, they’d need to incorporate climate change into their strategic thinking and create a pathway for the financial system to become carbon neutral.
“UK pension funds, investment funds, mutual funds, brokers and insurance companies that sell policies in the UK, will need to remove fossil fuel assets from their investment portfolios, securities transactions and balance sheets by 2030.”
The FCA will eliminate equities from fossil fuel exploitation from the stock market, and no shares will be issued in the future for these purposes.
Local authorities will be given £2bn a year to assist businesses with decarbonising.
£30bn will be invested into research and development over the next five years, with a focus on: “energy storage; agroecological agriculture and soil health; re-use, repair, recycling and designing out waste; carbon neutral construction; carbon-neutral production and carbon capture technology.”

Education

Seek to enable every child to “learn about the climate and biodiversity crisis to equip them for the challenges ahead.”

Tree planting

Advocate for an increase in productive forestry practices.
Increase “unharvested forest and woodland by over 50%.”

Human rights

Scrap the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act, Public Order Act, which erodes the rights of people to democratically protest, and to support freedom of expression.

Migration & international aid

Push for the UK to work with other countries to establish safe routes for people fleeing climate disasters, war, or persecution, to arrive at their country of choice.
Recognise our collective responsibility for the climate emergency, and supporting people forced to relocate, either internally or overseas.
Increase in overseas aid budget, and support for lower-income countries dealing with the climate crisis.
Ensure that the UK’s existing climate finance commitments, particularly for countries in the Global South, are delivered in full.
Push to “increase the climate finance budget to 1.5% of GNI by 2033”, in addition to a contribution to the Loss and Damage Fund.
Help low income countries tackle the climate and nature emergencies, by making finance and technology available.

Nature

Whilst nature policies are beyond the scope of this analysis, it’s worth noting that the Greens have extensive pledges on the topic. They would support a new international law on ecocide, introduce a Rights of Nature Act that would give nature the equivalent of legal personhood, and would set aside 30% of the UK’s land and seas for protection by 2030.

What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering?

The Green Party acknowledge that AI can only be a force for good, when it’s properly regulated. They state the following in their manifesto:

“Elected Greens will push for a precautionary regulatory approach to the harms and risk of AI. We would align the UK approach with our neighbours in Europe, UNESCO and global efforts to support a coordinated response to future risks of AI.

We will also aim to secure equitable access to any socially and environmentally responsible benefits these technologies can bring, at the same time as addressing any bias, discrimination, equality, liberty or privacy issues arising from the use of AI.

We would insist on the protection of the Intellectual Property of artists, writers and musicians and other creators. We would ensure that AI does not erode the value of human creativity and that workers’ rights and interests are respected when AI leads to significant changes in working conditions.”

Their manifesto doesn’t mention bioengineering.

How do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?

There isn’t a specific vision for 2040 in the Green manifesto. However, they pledge for the UK to be net zero by 2040, stating in their manifesto that, “We would push the government to transition to a zero-carbon society as soon as possible, and more than a decade ahead of 2050.” The Green Party has the most ambitious goal for net zero.

My verdict

The Green Party’s manifesto was refreshing to read, as it’s filled with hope for a progressive future, implementing many of the changes that these turbulent times call for. They have addressed each of the four questions in one way or another, making them and the Liberal Democrats, the only parties to do so. Not only that, but their climate, AI, and nuclear policies are stronger than any other party. Based on the four questions being assessed in this blog, the Greens come out on top by a mile. The Green Party have the ambition and the plans to tackle the greatest problems of our time. Quite simply, voting Green is a vote to tackle these issues and give humanity a shot at a liveable future. For more information on their other policies, see George Monbiot’s highly insightful Guardian article.

Labour

If you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war?

Labour’s manifesto doesn’t have any plans to lessen the risk of nuclear war.

However, they remain absolutely committed “to the UK’s nuclear deterrent,” which they say is vital for safeguarding the UK and NATO.

What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change?

Labour’s wordy manifesto has a section entitled ‘Make Britain a clean energy superpower’. It lacks ambition, especially compared to the Green Party manifesto. It’s a mixed bag of clean energy pledges as well as commitments to certain fossil fuels. Their clean power pledges include:

Create Great British Energy, a publicly owned company, which will be headquartered in Scotland. It will be funded with £8.3bn over the next five years; the money for which will come from the windfall tax on oil and gas companies. The company will work with trade unions and the industry to co-invest in leading technologies, “support capital-intensive projects,” and deliver local energy for communities. It will also work with local authorities, co-operatives, and energy companies to deliver thousands of solar, wind, and hydropower projects. Communities will be able to propose new projects. Devolved governments and local leaders will be involved to ensure local people see the benefits of energy production.
Deliver 650,000 new jobs by 2030.
Through the Green Prosperity Plan and National Wealth Fund, they’ll invest in “industries of the future.” For context, the Green Prosperity Plan will be funded by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies, as well as through borrowing. Whereas the National Wealth Fund will receive £7.3bn over the duration of the next Parliament. The National Wealth Fund will be spent on a range of things, including the following climate pledges: £1.5bn on new gigafactories, £1bn on carbon capture, and £500m on green hydrogen.
They propose to use public investment to gain private funding.
Invest in home insulation upgrades.
“Harness clean power to boost our energy security.”
Aim for clean power by 2030, through a zero-carbon electricity system.
Working with the private sector, they’ll double onshore wind, quadruple offshore wind, and triple solar power by 2030.
Invest in carbon capture and storage, marine energy, hydrogen, and long-term energy storage.
Implement an Energy Independence Act, setting out their climate and energy policies.
Secure the long-term future of the nuclear sector. Existing plants will have their lifetime extended. Hinkley Point C, will be brought “over the line.” Small Modular Reactors, and new power stations such as Sizewell C will help deliver energy security for the UK.
Utilise the skills of offshore workers to “embrace the future of energy production and storage.”
Fracking will be permanently banned.
No new coal licences will be issued.
No licences will be issued for exploring new oil and gas fields.
Labour’s plan will be supported by closing loopholes regarding the windfall tax on oil and gas companies. They’ll extend the sunset clause of the Energy Profits Levy for the duration of the next Parliament. This levy will also increase by three percentage points, and remove investment allowances. They’ll also keep the Energy Security Investment Mechanism.
Hydrogen will receive investment from the National Wealth Fund.
Companies that develop clean energy will be rewarded with a British Jobs Bonus. From 2026, up to £500m will be set aside for this.
£6.6bn will be invested over the next five years, to upgrade five million homes, as part of the Warm Homes Plan. This will provide grants and loans for insulation, solar panels, batteries, and low carbon heating. Further finance will come from the private sector, building societies, and banks, to accelerate this plan. By 2030, homes in the private-rented sector will meet the minimum energy efficiency standards. People won’t be forced to change their boiler.
The National Wealth Fund will help energy intensive sectors to decarbonise.
Supporting a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will prevent other countries sending lower-quality goods here, thus protecting British industries as they decarbonise.
The Bank of England will be able to take climate change into consideration in their mandates.
UK-regulated financial institutions (e.g. pension funds, banks, insurers, and asset managers), as well as FTSE 100 companies will be mandated to create and implement transition plans that align with the 1.5C Paris Agreement climate goal. For reference, we’re currently living through the breach of the 1.5C milestone/target.
In regards to climate resilience, Labour will improve preparation “across central government, local authorities, local communities, and emergency services.” This will involve working with the Fire and Rescue services to advise on policy and establish standards.
A commitment to create new woodlands and plant millions of trees.

Their fossil fuel pledges include:

Maintaining gas power stations as a strategic reserve of energy supply.
Refusal to revoke existing oil and gas licences, instead working to manage existing fields for their entire lifespans. “Oil and gas production in the North Sea will be with us for decades to come.”
A phased transition in the North Sea, recognising “the ongoing role of oil and gas in our energy mix.”

Outside of their ‘Make Britain a clean energy superpower’ section, there are other climate pledges scattered throughout their manifesto. These include:

Restoring the phase-out date of 2030 for cars with internal combustion engines.
Supporting the transition to EVs by accelerating the delivery of charging points.
Standardise information on battery condition of second-hand EVs.
Promoting sustainable aviation fuels.
Building sustainable homes, and creating places that promote nature recovery and increase climate resilience.
Moving to a circular economy to reduce waste.
Drive forward the energy transition across the world, and create a Clean Power Alliance of countries, which are leading the way in terms of climate action.
Restoring the leadership required to tackle the climate emergency, by meeting agreed targets.
Working with international partners at the forefront of climate change, such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Brazil.
Renewing focus and expertise in unlocking climate finance.

What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering?

Labour acknowledges that regulators aren’t properly equipped to deal with the rapid development of new technologies. As such, they propose creating a Regulatory Innovation Office, which “will help regulators update regulation, speed up approval timelines, and co-ordinate issues that span existing boundaries.”

They pledge to introduce “binding regulation on the handful of companies developing the most powerful AI models and by banning the creation of sexually explicit deepfakes,” as a means of ensuring the safe use and development of AI.

At the same time, they say they’ll ensure support for developing AI through their industrial strategy, which will also remove planning constraints on new datacentres.

From a healthcare perspective, Labour pledge to use AI to improve the accuracy and speed of diagnostic services. They also plan to introduce a fund called ‘Fit For the Future,’ which will double the quantity of MRI and CT scanners, saying that scanners with AI can save more lives as they’re more effective at finding things such as smaller tumours.

Their manifesto doesn’t mention bioengineering.

How do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?

Labour’s manifesto doesn’t mention a vision for 2040 or beyond.

My verdict

At 136 pages, Labour wrote the longest manifesto out of the five parties analysed. While it was heavy on words, it felt especially light on meaningful pledges. This is very apparent once you’ve read the Green Party’s manifesto.

I don’t believe their climate pledges are anywhere near sufficient to avoid climate chaos, and their commitment to North Sea oil and gas, as well as gas power stations, is major cause for concern. They have no plan to lessen the risk of nuclear war. Nor do they have any vision for 2040 for beyond. Their AI regulation pledge is to regulate only a handful of companies producing the most powerful AI systems; this in itself is woefully insufficient. Added to which, they say that they’ll support AI development.

The contradictory nature of Labour’s pledges has haunted them since before their manifesto was released, which gives the impression of a party that doesn’t know what it’s doing.

Based on this analysis, a vote for Labour won’t deliver the urgent transformation we desperately need. Despite this, they appear set to form the next government, if current polls are to be believed. Thus, we’ll need as many Green MPs as possible to hold them accountable and push them to be more ambitious, as George Monbiot says in a recent Guardian article.

Liberal Democrats

If you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war?

The Liberal Democrats say that they’ll pursue “multilateral global disarmament.” However, they also say that they’ll maintain the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change?

The Liberal Democrats have an extensive plan outlined in their ‘Climate change and energy’ section. Their pledges include:

Commitment to achieve net zero by 2045. This will be achieved by:
- Reducing emissions by 68% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), as part of the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).Ensuring the National Infrastructure Commission takes into account environmental impacts when making decisions.Putting the climate crisis at the centre of their industrial strategy.Investing in training and education to give people skills for the low-carbon economy.Focusing on nature-based solutions, including tree planting.Sustainable farming practices.Every car and vehicle sold in 2030 will need to be zero emission.Investing in active travel, public transport, and electrifying railways.Reducing the impact of flying.
- Create a Joint Climate Council of the Nations to coordinate climate action across the UK.
Taking urgent and bold action on the climate crisis.
Alongside businesses, they’ll make the UK a leader in clean technology.
Helping households with the cost of transitioning to net zero.
Implementing a ten-year emergency upgrade programme to make homes warmer and cheaper to heat. This will start with free insulation and heat pumps for low income households.
Introduction of a subsidised Energy-Saving Homes scheme, with the use of pilot schemes to find the right mix of loans, grants, tax incentives, and advice.
New homes will be zero-carbon, and should be fitted with solar panels.
Landlords to ensure that the energy efficiency of their houses meets an EPC grade of C or above, by 2028.
Increasing incentives for installing solar panels, to drive a rooftop solar revolution.
Incentivise the installation of heat pumps.
Aim for 90% of UK electricity to come from renewables by 2030.
“Appoint a Chief Secretary for Sustainability in the Treasury.”
Establishing a Net Zero Delivery Authority to co-ordinate amongst departments and devolved administrations, whilst handing resources and powers to local councils to implement net zero plans.
Creating national and local citizens’ assemblies, to enable the public to make decisions and have a say about addressing the climate crisis.
A return to 0.7% of national income spent on international development, with a focus on climate action.
Associating the UK Emissions Trading System (ETS) with the EU’s ETS.
Continued support for the UN’s Loss and Damage Fund.
Implementation of “a proper, one-off windfall tax” on oil and gas company profits.
Remove restrictions on solar and wind developments.
Support innovation and investment in wave and tidal power.
Maintain the fracking ban.
Ban new coal mines.
Building the grid infrastructure for more renewables to come online.
Implementing the G7 pledge to end subsidies for fossil fuels.
Pressing the OECD countries to end fossil fuel subsidies for foreign projects.
Ensuring people working in the oil and gas industry receive decent opportunities for the transition to renewables. They’ll also take, “special care of the regions and communities most affected.”
Investment in green hydrogen, energy storage, pumped storage, and battery capability.
Working with European countries to build a sustainable supply chain for renewables.
Building more electricity interconnectors that connect the UK to other countries, to guarantee electricity supply.
Giving local authorities the power to develop local renewable energy and storage plans.
Smaller low-carbon energy producers will have fair terms for exporting their electricity.
Big energy suppliers will be required to work with community schemes to sell electricity to local customers.
“Reforming the energy network, to permit local energy grids.” Grid connection costs will be reduced.
Community benefit funds will receive their share of wealth generated by local renewables.
Business will have an environmental general duty of care.
Large companies on the stock exchange will have to set targets for achieving net zero and report on progress.
New regulations for the financial services industry, encouraging investments in “climate-friendly” options. They’ll need to show their portfolio is compliant with the Paris Agreement. New regulatory powers targeting those failing to manage their climate risks.
Public procurement policy will be updated to expand “climate-friendly products and services.”
Implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (a description of this can be found in the Labour analysis above).
Emission reduction for industrial processes, through carbon capture and storage, as well as producing steel and cement using low-carbon processes.
Providing advice on cutting emissions for businesses.
Supporting zero-carbon industrial clusters.
Increasing the Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.

Outside of their ‘Climate change and energy’ section, the Liberal Democrats have the following climate pledges scattered throughout their manifesto:

Make Britain a leader in tackling the climate and nature emergencies.
Provide the UK Infrastructure Bank with a clear remit on zero-carbon.
British Business Bank to play a more central role in the economy and ensure that small and medium-sized businesses have the finance necessary to invest in zero-carbon products.
Support small businesses and startups with research in zero-carbon technology.
Encourage businesses to become more energy efficient.
Implement a circular economy to reduce waste and pollution, through “the recovery, reuse, recycling and remanufacturing of products.”
Companies will need to report on the environmental and societal impacts on their operations.
National Colleges will be developed to provide the skills needed for sectors including the renewables industry.
A minimum of 60 million trees will be planted each year.
Local authorities will receive more powers to tackle the climate crisis.
30% of land and sea will be protected by 2030.
On a global scale, they’ll aim “to protect 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030 through the UN High Seas Treaty.”
Ensure nature-based solutions are used to tackle the climate emergency, by:
- Restoring peatlands, banning horticultural peat, and banning routine heather and peatland burning.
- Protect and grow the UK’s temperate rainforest.
- Create and restore saltmarshes, seagrass meadows, and mudflats.
- Introduce and enforce accredited Blue Carbon and Soils Carbon Standards, to tackle greenwashing.
- Work with partners to reduce global deforestation.
- Creation of fully protected marine protected areas.
- Restoration and protection of Blue Carbon.
Support farmers with the dual objective of restoring nature (e.g. woodland, waterways, natural flood protections, species recovery) while continuing to produce food.
Facilitate an easy and cheap transition to EVs by increasing the number of charging points (including in residential areas, and also “ultra-fast chargers at service stations”), upgrade the National Grid and local grid capacity for these new charging points, “reintroducing the plug-in car grant,” Reduced VAT rate of 5% for public charging, and all charging points will accept payment with bank cards.
Rail fares will be frozen, and ticketing will be simplified so regular users pay affordable prices.
Increase the electrification of the railway network, as part of a ten-year plan. New rail lines will be electrified. Batteries and other zero-carbon technologies will receive investment.
Aim to move more freight by rail.
Explore the idea of an annual pass that encompasses all railways.
Introduction of an international rail strategy, which would support new operators and new routes, allowing different operators to use both the Channel Tunnel, as well as HS1.
Local authorities to be given more power on boosting bus services, enabling new routes to be added and old routes to be restored. Funding will also be provided for “switching to zero-emission vehicles.”
Support for rural bus services, and on-demand services where conventional services aren’t viable.
Aim to integrate ticketing systems for bus, rail, and light rail, to enable the introduction of a daily fare cap across these networks.
Maintaining the £2 cap on bus fares.
Half-fares on buses, trains, and trams for 18-year-olds.
Introduction of a ‘Young Person’s Buscard’, giving 19-25 year olds up to a third off bus and tram fares.
Extend the programmes encouraging bus operators and local authorities to switch to zero-emission buses.
Nationwide active travel strategy, which will create new walking and cycling networks.
Make the UK a leader in zero-carbon flights by investing in research and development.
Implement a strategy to reduce flight demand.
Reform international flight taxation, with a focus on frequent fliers. Households taking up to two international flights annually, will have a reduced cost.
Introduction of a “super tax on private jet flights.” VAT exemptions will be removed for private flights, as well as business-class and first-class flights.
Airlines will be required to show a comparison of carbon emissions for domestic flights with the equivalent emissions for a rail journey.
Domestic flights which have an equivalent direct rail option that takes less than 2.5 hours, will be banned. The caveat being that the flights can still happen if “planes are alternative-fuelled.”
Moratorium on airport expansion until such time as a national capacity and emissions management framework is in operation.
Pledge to oppose airport expansion at Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton, London City, Stansted, and any airports in the Thames Estuary.

What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering?

The Liberal Democrats say they’ll negotiate participation in the Trade and Technology Council, alongside the EU and the US. They say this will allow them to play a leading role in AI regulation, agree common standards for risk, impact assessment, testing, monitoring, and auditing.

Their aim is to create a cross-sectoral regulatory framework for AI. This would:

Ensure transparency and accountability for AI in the public sector.
Personal data use will be transparent, accurate, unbiased, and respectful of innocent people’s privacy.
Promote innovation, and create “certainty for AI users, developers and investors”

Ultimately, their aim is for the UK to become a leader in ethical and inclusive technology.

Perhaps most promising, is their commitment to establish national and local citizens’ assemblies, which will give the public an opportunity to have their say on big issues like AI and the climate emergency. The Liberal Democrats are the only party to mention citizens’ assemblies in their manifesto.

Their manifesto doesn’t mention bioengineering.

How do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?

The Liberal Democrats don’t have a specific vision for 2040 or beyond.

However, they pledge for the UK to achieve net zero by 2045. In addition, they intend to halt the decline of the natural environment by doubling nature by 2050. In practice, this will involve:

Doubling the Protected Area Network
Doubling the area of important wildlife habitats
Doubling the abundance of species
Doubling woodland cover

My verdict

The Liberal Democrats have the second best climate policies, after the Green Party. They aim to be net-zero by 2045 (five years after the Green Party, and five years before the Conservatives and Labour). On nuclear, they are committed to multilateral global disarmament, and yet also maintaining the UK’s nuclear deterrent. They say they want to play a leading role in AI regulation, but they lack detail regarding the urgency of threats that AI poses. Nonetheless, their commitment to citizens’ assemblies on AI and climate change is definitely the right way forward, and it’s worth pointing out again that they were the only party to pledge this. The citizens’ assemblies pledge was a great example of the progressive nature of their manifesto. Their vision for 2040 and beyond will see the doubling of nature by 2050. Purely based on manifestos, theirs is second best – beaten only by the Green Party.

Reform UK

If you are elected, what actions will you take to lessen the risks of nuclear war?

Reform UK doesn’t address nuclear war or nuclear weapons in their manifesto.

What actions will you take to lessen the risks of climate change?

Reform UK will worsen the climate crisis, as they are committed to scrapping net zero (something they mention multiple times in the manifesto).

They are committed to unlocking “Britain’s vast oil and gas reserves”, by fast-tracking licences for oil and gas developments in the North Sea. This will be supported by granting “shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years.”

They pledge to scrap environmental levies, and energy levies, as well as £10 billion in annual renewable energy subsidies. Continuing with this theme, they propose to cease “climate-related farming subsidies,” insisting that land they class as productive mustn’t be used for solar farms or rewilding. To top things off, they will “Legislate to ban ULEZ Clean Air Zones and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods,” and say that car manufacturers won’t be legally required to sell electric vehicles.

However, Reform UK are open to tree planting, higher recycling rates, and fewer single use plastics. In addition, they will, “fast-track clean nuclear energy with new Small Modular Reactors, built in Britain. Increase and incentivise ethical UK lithium mining for electric batteries, combined cycle gas turbines, clean synthetic fuel, tidal power and explore clean coal mining.”

Reform UK will take us backwards on climate change (the phrase ‘climate change’ isn’t mentioned at all in their manifesto), and voters should bear that in mind – particularly those who have children or grandchildren, and therefore a stake in the future.

What actions will you take to regulate disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering?

AI and bioengineering aren’t addressed in the Reform UK manifesto.

How do you see the world of 2040? What is your worst-case scenario, and what is your vision for the best-case scenario?

Reform UK doesn’t address the world of 2040 or beyond.

My verdict on Reform UK’s manifesto

Reform UK’s manifesto reads like one you might expect from a party led by Nigel Farage. They aren’t prepared to tackle any of the major global issues mentioned above, and have no vision for 2040 or beyond. None of the four questions were answered in their manifesto – that in itself is a clear warning. A vote for them would be a vote for worsening the climate crisis, and the AI crisis. Out of all five manifestos assessed, theirs was the least progressive and came bottom of the rankings.

Conclusion

The five manifestos comprised a total of over 400 pages. Reading these back-to-back really gave a flavour of what parties were offering, as well as what they weren’t. Using Yuval Noah Harari’s four questions also showed clearly which parties were thinking about the future, and which had plans to address the biggest challenges of our time.

In 21 Lessons for the 21^st Century, Yuval Noah Harari said, “If some politicians don’t understand these questions, or if they constantly talk about the past without being able to formulate a meaningful vision for the future, don’t vote for them.” That seems like a sensible basis on which to write this summary.

Reform UK had no responses to any of the four questions, apart from making climate change worse. The Conservatives only had a response to the climate change question, but part of that was a commitment to fossil fuels which overshadows their climate pledges. Labour only answered two questions on climate change and AI, but those two responses are woefully inadequate (e.g. being committed to the North Sea fossil fuels for decades to come, and only regulating a handful of AI companies). Therefore, as these three parties have failed to appropriately address the questions, I can’t recommend voting for them.

The one party that had well thought out and progressive plans in place to tackle all these issues was the Green Party, and they managed to do it in one of the shortest manifestos (48 pages). Reading their manifesto, one actually begins to feel hope about the future, and that solutions and pathways exist to tackle these civilisation-threating issues. If you do nothing else before the election, I highly recommend reading their manifesto to see for yourself. Voting Green is the primary recommendation, based on this analysis.

That leaves the Liberal Democrats, who also had a progressive manifesto. It was easily the second-best manifesto out of the five, and thought has clearly been put into it. Unfortunately, they also had a vote-worthy manifesto in 2010, and many people entrusted their future to the party back then. The Lib Dems gained enough seats to go into a power-sharing agreement with the Conservatives and betrayed those who voted for them by backtracking on key pledges… That betrayal alienated me from politics for many years. As such, I can’t recommend voting for a party, no matter how good their manifesto might be, if trust doesn’t exist. Once bitten, twice shy… as they say.

It may also be of interest to know that Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth analysed four manifestos (Conservative, Green, Labour, and Lib Dem), and rated them on their climate and nature commitments. The scores were as follows:

Green Party: 39 out of 40.
Liberal Democrats: 31.5 out of 40.
Labour: 20.5 out of 40.
Conservative: 5 out of 40.

This tallies with my analysis.

Based on my manifesto analysis of these big issues, it feels like a vote for any party other than the Green Party (or those voting Lib Dem because they don’t have a Green candidate) is a vote against our collective chance of surviving this defining century. Unfortunately, that’s how dangerously late we’ve left action on the climate and AI crises. This critical decade really will shape civilisation’s future, for better or worse. And the political party elected on the 4^th July, will theoretically remain in power until 2029. In other words, they’ll shape our destiny.

I write this in the knowledge that Labour is currently leading in the polls, and predicted to get a large majority. But their manifesto is nowhere near what we need, and as George Monbiot says, they’re unlikely to magically become more ambitious if they get into power.

I encourage people to be brave and think carefully about the future, before placing their vote. For the consequences could very well be the difference between life and death for billions of people around the world.

Finally, I’d like to end with a quote about responsibility, which comes from the Māori principle called ‘whakapapa’. It feels quite apt, because this vote will have enormous repercussions for generations to come, and thus we have a lot of responsibility on our shoulders as we head to the polling stations. The quote is taken from Owen Eastwood’s book called Belonging: “Over time, I have come to understand whakapapa in this way: Each of us are part of an unbreakable chain of people going back and forward in time. Back to our first ancestor at the beginning of time and into the future to the end of time. Each of us in this chain of people have our arms interlocked with those on either side of us. We are unbreakable…When the sun is shining on us, we must be guardians of our tribe and of each other.”

My new cli-fi children’s picture book, Nanook and the Melting Arctic is available from Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US. My eco-fiction children’s picture book, Hedgey-A and the Honey Bees about how pesticides affect bees, is available on Amazon’s global stores including Amazon UK and Amazon US.